Thursday, February 26, 2009

Pointless Speculation

Some speculation about what I think is going to happen in the world of tech and gadgets in 2009.

First off, (going big) iPhone. I purchased the original iPhone a couple months after launch(June 2007). I freaking love the thing. It has only gotten better and better since I dropped the exorbident amount of cash on it. Then came the 3G, which I was very excited about in the lead up to its release(July 2009). Once the phone actually came out it fell extremely flat for me. It was basically the exact phone with a slightly redone body and a questionable new cellular chip. What was the big draw to get me to buy this? "Its faster!" was the obvious answer, but that was a relative question. The 3G network of ATT was not nearly as strong and reliable as its EDGE and as a result was subject to frequent outages at the time of release, while my EDGE connection was suiting me just fine. Ive since cracked the screen on my First Gen and I still prefer it over the 3G, mostly because I think a new one is due soon.
So I am thinking that this summer (6/07 -> 7/08 -> 8/09???) we will see the real iPhone 3G (3rd generation, as per the iPod naming scheme). I think there is a substantial amount of evidence for this. First, iPhones are selling like crazy. It seem like everyone and their mother has one now so all that stock isnt sitting still. Second, there are increasing discounts at large vendors such as Walmart and more recently Best Buy, discounting $100(!). I think Apples trying to drop push floorstock numbers even faster to accomodate a new product. Third, the hardware is freaking old. The original iPhone and the 3G run on very similar internals. The processor chips are the same and there wasnt even a storage increase in the second round, that is very unusual. Which points me to the iPod Touch which recieved its second release around the same time as the 3G. Now, the Touch did recieve spec bumps in its processor and in its storage. "Why one and not the other?" I have to ask. I think ATTs subisidy came at the cost of helping to push its inferior 3G network to more utilization while allowing Apple to sell larger numbers due to the price drop. So Apple stuck in a new cell chip and put out an almost identical product, while working on the real next-gen iPhone in quiet.
Now as for the rumored "iPhone Nano," no friggin' way. Shrinking the screen realestate is ridiculous for one. I think the iPhones screen is right about at the lower limit for a usable touch screen device. Tactile keyboard? Nope. Fat chance. Just learn to use the touch keyboard. Ive grown to like it so much i wish my laptop keyboard had its functionality (double tapping space for a period would be awesome! Id script it but...uh...um...). I would love to see copy/paste, simultaneous apps, maybe some of those safari 4 beta features. I dont think this is too unreasonable. The Palm Pre due out this year seems to be trying to hit them on these points, and I dont think it could stand a chance if these feature were worked out.

Next up is Windows 7. Ive had the beta for a while now (Im a MSDN member) and I think it is fantastic. Now I say fantastic in comparison to the piece of dog crap that was Vista. This is a real "why didnt you do it this way to begin with" release. The polish is there since its basically just a re-thought Vista with a few new features (that i have yet to really notice). The beta has to be the most stable beta operating system I've ever used. Theres rumors of a release candidate build being right around the corner. Steve Ballmer keeps saying next year, but if hes taught us anything about who he is, this is utter crap.
I use the box that is installed on primarily for gaming ( Team Fortess 2 and Left 4 Dead) and i have noticed substantial performance increases on my mediocre system. All my hardware installed without a hitch and I actually have some features I didnt even have when I had XP installed. I would love to change my work computer over. Its really scary how many software devlopers there are out there still wokring in XP. XP came out in 2001, 8 years ago! Thats ridiculous. However, I cannot bring myself to install a beta OS on a machine that I absolutely require for my extremely computing intensive work, a release candidate though, I could do that.
So Im calling it. iPhone by summer, Windows by fall. This is all my blatant speculation. Only founded on my observations. I will never pretend to understand the logic of major businesses like these. I just see some trends that look to point in this direction. I bet Im right though.

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